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Wednesday 5 July 2017

Nasdaq and Dow 7 year cycles

If the markets move in seven year cycles, then there are two ways of looking at the present manifestation.

First, the Bubble of 2014 was not sufficiently burst, and a collapse is imminent.

Second, there was a sufficient correction in 2014, and we will continue in a Bull Market until 2021.

It is likely that world-wide policies of Quantitative Easing and Low Central Bank Interest Rates, as well as political events, kept cash liquid and the markets unnaturally buoyant and that the Bubble of 2014, unnaturally extended, is about to burst now.

Tuesday 4 July 2017

NASDAQ to tumble now

February 2017, I made a premature prediction of a tumble in share prices (Line A). It looks like the tumble is about to happen at last (Line B) . We are probably seeing the beginning of a Bear Market to take us into 2018.

Monday 3 July 2017

Motor Industry: From here it's Down, Down, Down

Motor Cars are obsolescent technology. They promised transport to any destination at any time of day or night. The present reality is gridlock, destinations inaccessible, unsustainable road building, air pollution. E-cars are not the answer, but a new transport technology of capsules travelling in tubes, described at The Motor Industry will go into severe decline until it embraces this new technology.

Tuesday 18 April 2017

CRH to keep falling

With a P/E that is still over 21, even though it may rally from its present low, it looks inevitable that CRH, like American shares in general, will continue to fall for a considerable time.

A substantial rise in earnings is necessary to maintain current price levels.

European shares trade at a P/E of around 14 and American shares must correct to similar levels. I am neutral for the moment, as there may be an upswing from the current level before continuing the downtrend.

Wednesday 5 April 2017

Anticipated downswing begins

Bouncing off Resistance Line R today seems to indicate a downswing. I guess we will see a movement somewhat along the track described by the green arrow. Looking back next month, we will say that the downtrend began on the 1st of March.

Thursday 30 March 2017

S&P: watch and see

Pulling out of its recent down-swing, we watch to see if the index will be constrained by our speculative Resistance Line (purple), or if it will crash through this line to resume the up-trend. The up-trend has already proceeded beyond reason, and I won't be taking a long position. Should it bounce off the purple line, however, I am ready to resume a short.

(Published by me two days ago on Trading View).

Tuesday 28 March 2017

S&P etc., Down-channel emerging

I think the down-channel of the SVP is emerging, and I have replaced my previous "Indicative Resistance Line" (green) with my new "Emerging Resistance Line" (blue). Time, then, not for exiting the short, but for strengthening it!

Same goes for the other American indexes. European and emerging indexes may suffer a little as well, but are not (as) over-priced as the American.