DOW to swing up from here in Downtrend

The present pattern suggests an upswing from here possibly as far as 173.50 (DIA price), followed by a downswing to c. 171, as the DOW continues is downtrend fuelled by prospect of Interest rise in the New Year. Final tentative target of the Downtrend is represented by the Green Line, in Jan or Feb 2016, at around 155.

NASDAQ to Swing Up in Downtrend

If the DOW is in a downtrend, why not the NASDAQ? I see the NASDAQ 100 swinging up for a bit (possibly to 4500), before continuing its nascent downtrend. Not as definite a downtrend as the DOW, but are not all the American markets to react the same to the prospect of interest rates rising?

Slowdown in DOW downtrend likely

Today, Wed 19 Aug, the US Central Bank will give a hint as to whether interest rates will rise in Sep. Most likely they will not - saving the markets from a severe plunge. Postponing the rise in interest rates will give the markets a breather. The curves on the chart show scope for the downtrend to slow down for a while.

EUR/USD longterm prospect is up

The long term chart shows the EUR/USD at the bottom of its natural zone, and rising from this bottom.

Downward pressures are the prospect of a rise in American interest rates and commencement of Quantitative Tightening in the US, as against continuing ZIRP and QE in Europe.

A week ago it seemed that these pressures had stopped the resurgence, but China stepped in to force the Euro to rise against the Yuan, which necessarily means rising against the Dollar. The balance has, perhaps, shifted back in favour of a rising EUR/USD.

DOW downtrend strengthens

Whatever the immediate stimulus (Chinese exchange rate cut?), the DOW downtrend has strengthened. We are now in for a deep correction. My chart shows DIA (DOW INDUSTRIALS ETF) continuing to fall from its present $172 to c. $145.

DOW downswing today

The Dow Jones is on a downtrend.

After yesterday's upswing, it will plunge back down today. Short DIA (Dow Industrials ETF) at c. $176, and take profit at $173.

EUR/USD rally runs out of steam

Monetary outflows from Europe continue according to Deutsche Bank.

US interest rates are to rise later this year.

QE, if the funds are not re-invested, will convert into Quantitative Tightening.

The US Dollar will strengthen again against all comers except, perhaps, GBP and NZD.

While the trend of the Euro against the Dollar has been slowly upwards since early Mar, this rally has proven rather weak-hearted and is running out of whatever steam it had. The year-long downtrend that began in May 2014 appears to be re-asserting itself. This week EUR/USD must break through either the Year-long Resistance Line, or the 3-month old Support Line. I guess that it is the Support Line that will not hold.