DOW sticks to downward path

Repeating the chart I drew 9 days ago on tradingview.com shows DOW INDUSTRIALS INDEX sticking closely to the downward path I laid down with very little wandering off-track. The green curved line shows that there is considerable scope for varying from the path while still continuing downwards. At present the graph is half-way between the predictive curve leading to the expected bottom and the one leading to the worst scenario. Though there will probably be half-hearted rebounds along the way, the chart is on line to hit a bottom below 15000 by year-end.

QE and ZIRP (Quantative Easing and Zero Interest Rate Policy) brought the Dow to its 2015 height. Now is Payback time for QE loans, and the ending of ZIRP. These changes are sufficient to bring about a correction to the "expected bottom." A serious deteriation in world economics might cause a further plunge back to the "historic slope," which I guess would be the worst scenario.

EUR/USD slope rises

The Euro's peak hit a new height, forcing us to review our current channel. I have drawn Resistance and Support Zones instead of lines, to articulate the ambiguity. The trend, of course, remains upwards; downswings probably remain gradual.

DOW overview

Chart show summary of Dow Industrials  since 1980. Click to enlarge.

EUR/USD Spike: Where will it find Resistance?

        

In my last Euro  post I displayed a 23 year chart and justified my 2016 Projected Upslope.

 

Today I zoom in on the current spike. I draw a speculative Resistance Line parrallel to the Current Support Line. If the graph repeats the pattern of December's spike, there may be a gradual rather than a sudden drop back to, and no further than, the Current Support Line.

DOW pattern for 2016

The graph shows the performance of DOW INDUSTRIALS since 1995.

 

Human institutions, like nature, are creatures of pattern. Expecting this graph to repeat the patterns of the past, I draw two S shaped curved lines linking the expected bottoms and tops for the coming period.

 

I expect the downtrend to continue for the entire of 2016. A further 7% will be lost in this Bear Market, bringing this  index below 15.000.

EURO On a Spike

The Euro  jumped 2% today against the US Dollar. I reckon this is a spike and it will now fall back, though perhaps not by the entire 2%.

The chart shows the entire history of the Euro  against the Dollar, going right back to 1993. The uptrends have been consistently more or less at the slope I projected for 2016. Coming down off today's spike may bring the graph back in line. There is, however, plenty of precedent for the spike to be continued for a day or two longer! before coming back in line.

DOW and NASDAQ continue downtrend despite upswing

While the US Markets rebounded last week, they are still within the parameters of a Bear Market.

 

DOW Industrials  shown by orange coloured graph and trend lines, and NASDAQ 100 shown by blue graph and trend lines.

 

Neither appears near the end of the current correction; so the Bear Market is likely to continue for most of 2016.

 

Click on Image to enlarge.