140725 EUR/USD plunges

The EUR/USD has plunged again.

Click on image for a larger view.

Where will the present downtrend of the EUR/USD end? Looking at the long-term chart (since 1990), whichever line we take (A or B) as the Support Line, the downtrend has a long way to go yet: probably as far as $1.3022 at least. What could abort the downtrend in the meantime? A reversal of policy of the ECB; worse than expected performance of the US economy with extension of quantitive easing, or better than expected financial peformance in Europe.

140724 EUR/JPY mirrors EUR/USD but faster

As the US Dollar slips against the Yen and the Euro slips against the Dollar, the EUR/JPY miorrors the EUR/USD, but at a faster rate, around 25% faster:

Click on image for larger view.

At first sight, this suggests that the EUR/JPY is a better short punt than the EUR/USD. However, at this moment in time, the EUR/JPY is nearer the bottom of its range than the EUR/USD, making the latter the safer punt.

140723 A look at Japanese Yen v. the Euro

petegibb78, on TradingView.com asked me to have a look at EUR/JPY.

First, I had a look to see how the Japanese Index was doing:

Japanese shares have been up and down quite a lot since the 1990s. 2013 saw a strong uptrend, which has now ended and a downtrend has commenced. Besides the trend lines (Resistance Line joining the tops and Support Line joining the bottoms), I also display two simple moving averages a 10-month and a 20-month. When the price moves away from the moving average, a correction follows. Recently this correction has taken place, as the price swung down. The longer-term moving average is now edging its way over the shorter-term moving average. This supports the notion highlighted by the trend lines that a downtrend is afoot.

While the western exchanges are still progressing upwards, and heading away from the moving averages, in Japan the downtrend has already begun.

Next, I look to see how the US Dollar is doing against the Yen:

The Dollar rose strongly against the Yen in the last year, but now is beginning to trend downwards.  Since the Euro is trending downwards against the Dollar, it must be trending doubly downwards against the Yen.

Now to look at the Euro against the Yen:

The Euro has been trending upwards against the Yen, but in recent months has turned downwards. While the western stock markets have not yet reversed to a downtrend, this will follow soon. Betting on the EURJPY going down is strongly indicated, in my opinion.

140722 EUR/USD Plummets

Early today, the Euro plummeted against the US Dollar.

Simple trend lines drawn on the chart show the dive continuing to $1.333 and then a swing back to $1.342. For a larger, and clearer, view, click on the image.

Unfortunately, my entire Shares Punt fund is tied up with my shorts on Intel Corp and Twitter. Should I exit those and put my money on a EUR/USD Short instead? The problem with that is that Intel and Twitter could actually fall now, as I had predicted, and there is really nothing stopping the Euro from "prematurely" bouncing back (though for a medium-term, rather than a short-term, punt, it is reasonably safe to predict that the Euro downtrend will continue for the next few months).

140719S&P 500: Uptrend may continue, but downswing is imminent

Click chart to enlarge.

This is a one-year chart of the SPX500 (Tradingview's name for the S&P 500). Even though the Uptrend may continue, it looks like a downswing is imminent, dropping the price from 1976 to at least 1940 over the coming week.

This is one option I will bear in mind for my Shares Punt when the market opens tomorrow.

140718: EUR/USD limit price adjustment

I have drawn lines on the following chart of the Euro against the US Dollar in an effort to predict the top of the present projected upswing.

If the current down-trend of the Euro against the Dollar continues, the price will not break through the Trend Resistance Line. My projection of the Resistance Line of the projected upswing follows the slope of the previous upswing (of Jun/ Jul). The blue horizontal line marks the place where the projected upswing Resistance Line meets the Trend Resistance Line. Though the projected upswing may peak above this point, any such peak will be very temporary. The Blue Line, then, marks a good level at which to renew my punt against the EUR/USD. I have adjusted my limit order accordingly.

140718 Intel spike bottom projected

On 16 July, Intel (INTC) share price jumped by almost 10% in anticipation of its quarterly report. I placed a punt on the price dropping from that spike. I placed a limited order to close the trade at $32, which was a reasonable expectation if the price fell sharply from the top of the spike. Now I want to project the most likely bottom to the spike, seeing that the price is falling not so sharply, and adjust my exit price accordingly.

Click on the image for a larger view.

The second half of May saw an acceleration in Intel's upwards trend, the price breaking through the Old Resistance Line. The market  correction many people expect may bring a substantial downwards correction, but for the moment we are concerned only with predicting the bottom of the  current spike.

The dotted line shows the price falling to the current Support Line, and bottoming at $32.49. To be reasonably sure of successfully closing the Trade, I have adjusted my exit price to $33.