CRH: time to sell

Having fallen a little over the last 5 days, should we expect CRH to recover?

Not at all!

With a P/E of c. 27, the stock is over-priced. Even with a continuation of profit growth at almost 8%, a significant fall in price must be anticipated.

I would say: sell now and buy later after the price tumbles to around £22 ( LSE price).

The Trump Crash (S&P 500)

S&P 500  to crash from 2277 to 1600, or even 1300?

It may seem unbelievable, but this would be a drop in P/E from the excessively high level of 25.5 down to its median level of 14.65.

Trump's economic policy, negative on trade, is likely to see a contraction in GDP rather than a rise.

Tomorrow is the first of February, so we can expect to see prices falling now that we are out of January.

Ali Baba uptrend defined

The pink trend lines are my original depiction of the uptrend.

The green arrow shows my original prediction of an upswing.

The pink oval area shows how the graph dropped further than I envisaged, with the consequent redrawing of the trend lines (blue) and the blue arrow showing my revised prediction of the upswing.

The graph bounced off my blue Resistance Line and is fairly likely to swing down and up following the red arrow.

The trend is upwards anyway. There is a possibility that the graph will not go all the way down to the blue Support Line, but resume the original steeper upslope. Hesitant for the moment, my long-term view is long.

DOW and American Indexes to plunge

The chart shows the Dow Industrial Index to be at a peak.

Wall Street Journal gives the P/E of Dow Industrials (Current price over earnings for 2016) at 21.44. Nasdaq and S&P are even more extended, at 25, and Dow Utility at 28.

Meanwhile DAX (German Index) is around 18.

Pressure will now be on the American indexes to plunge towards a P/E of 18 (but based on estimated earnings for 2017). Expectations of a sudden massive surge in American GDP/ return on shares, as a result of Trump economics, are fantasy. There will be a plunge towards $13,000 for Dow Industrial Index.

DOW: Next it's Down!

Patterns repeat. Share prices have hit a zenith and the next movement will be down.

ALIBABA to break out of down-swing

 This week ALIBABA must break through either the Resistance Line of the downswing or the Support Line of the uptrend. I guess the Support Line will hold and the next swing is upwards. It could be an upswing of 20%, if the green trend arrow is followed.

EIRL ETF basket of Irish shares shaken by BREXIT

While many of the leading Irish companies in the EIRL basket have an international footprint, the upward slope of the ETF from 2012 to June 2016 (if we leave out the excessive exuberance of 2014) closely matches the growth of the Irish economy in that period.

Anxiety over the BREXIT referendum flattened the top of the chart in the months leading up to the referendum, and the shock of the result caused a severe slump in prices, which have been recovering since.

The Irish economy continues to grow strongly. Official estimates for the growth of the economy over the next five years at three per cent per annum, in line with with the projected growth in population, somewhat restrained because of fears of the effect of Great Britain leaving the EU, indicate that the tentative upward slope of the share prices will continue and we will soon see a break-out from the BREXIT inspired downtrend.