Thursday, 30 April 2015
The Euro is definitely trending upwards against the US Dollar, even though there is plenty of room for downswings. The Greek crisis is of little importance, given that Greek GDP is a mere $0.23 T, compared to Germany $3.9 T, the EU $18.5 T and USA $17.4 T (2014 figures). My previous projected map of the upswing is still valid.
The fundamentals are that the Dollar has grown too strong against other currencies and must suffer a big correction.
Thursday, 16 April 2015
In my last post, I predicted that EUR/USD would bounce off Line C in my chart. This has now happened. The double bounce off Line C is strong evidence that the uptrend is now under way. I move the blue triangle of my previous post to the right to renew my guess of the slope of the uptrend..
Saturday, 11 April 2015
On first sight, it appears that EUR/USD has decided to continue its downward trend, continuing Option B as its Resistance Line. The fundamentals indicate otherwise, however. US interest rates are not to rise this year (according to the FED on Wednesday last); US trade is suffering from the high value of the Dollar; EU economies are picking up, while the US recovery is slowing down. The pressures are now on the US Dollar to fall against other securities, even while USA share-prices hold steady (for the moment). Watch EUR/USD now bounce off Line C to jump back into an upward trend.
Tuesday, 7 April 2015
EUR/USD is at a watershed. Will it break through Support Line A (indicating that the year-long downtrend will continue), or Resistance Line B (indicating that an uptrend, tentatively heralded by me in my last few posts) is truly under way? I guess the latter!
Friday, 3 April 2015
Since my last post, EUR/USD has followed exactly the tentative future path I laid down. The graph has now passed through the 30-Day Moving Average, which I previously postulated would be a signal that an upward trend is beginning. This is not the first time, however, that this MA has been breached in course of the Euro's downtrend, (and I circle 3 such recent instances), so it is still only tentatively that I declare an upward trend.
Thursday, 2 April 2015
Wednesday, 1 April 2015
When the price moves too high above the Moving Average, the pressure is for a downward movement. Likewise, when it moves too low below the MA, the pressure is for an upward movement in the price. My pink ellipses show the instances where the price was too high by this rule, and the green ellipses the occasions when it was too low. My previous predictions of a rebound of INTC were premature. It looks likely to fall to $29 before rebounding, right up to $40.
It is too soon to be certain that the Euro has begun to trend upwards against the US Dollar. I dare, however, to predict tentatively an uptrend symmetrical to last year's downtrend.
See also: Review of my predictions on EUR/USD from Apr 2014 to Apr 2015