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Monday, 30 May 2016

EUR/USD to peak one way or the other on BREXIT day

The vertical line marks the date of the BREXIT referendum.
Anticipating a positive result (i.e., STAY), the security will rise from its present bottom.
A positive result in the referendum will bring a peak in the value of both Euro and GBP against the US Dollar, settling back to the current Resistance Line or thereabouts.
A negative result will bring a down-spike, settling back to a lower position in the present range.
(Click on the charge for a larger image).

NASDAQ to hit a peak

I reckon the 5-year Support Line is our main guide to where the NASDAQ 100 is heading. The trend is upwards, but we are about to hit a peak

Wednesday, 25 May 2016

NASDAQ 100: Is the down-trend now over?

So, the graph has now hit the Trend (Resistance) Line. If it breaks through this line, I will conclude that the down-trend is over, and for the next while down-swings will bounce off the 5-year Support Line. The former height of 4710 could be achieved by July.

EUR/USD: Is this the bottom of the Down-swing?

Early in the year I drew a projected up-slope for 2016, following the historical uptrend norm.
The rise in the Euro  against the US Dollar  soon accelerated to a faster slope, but recent weeks have seen a down-swing, bringing us back to the projected line.
The BREXIT referendum (scheduled for 23 June 2016) is obviously making investors nervous about betting on the Euro  (and GBP) for fear of the currency plunging in the event of a "Leave" decision.
Judging by the chart alone, one would guess that the down-swing has now reached its bottom point, but the nervousness about BREXIT could drive it further down.
The most likely (or sensible) result of the referendum would be to Remain in the EU, in which case we will see a spike.
The next few days will show whether the down-swing is over or will continue until close to referendum day.

Tuesday, 24 May 2016

NASDAQ 100: Is the downtrend over?

In my last post on the NASDAQ, I suggested that a revival of price before the graph met Support Line S1 would indicate that the downtrend is over. It is not certain whether the current rise is a revival or just a pause in the down-swing. I wait and observe now.

Monday, 23 May 2016

EUR/USD shows Brexit nerves

Four weeks to go to the BREXIT referendum. The Euro  and Sterling are feeling nervous.

For Britain to leave the EU would be madness.

If the Brits vote to stay, both currencies will have a spike immediately after.

In the unlikely event that they vote to leave, the immediate effect might be a down-spike. However, the actual changes in the treaties will take time and both sides will strive to optimise the results.

Ultimately, EUR/USD  will continue upwards.

Monday, 9 May 2016

EUR/USD My projection is holding firm

Click on the image to enlarge it.

It looks like the golden arrow I drew a month ago is holding firm and the uptrend continues inside the green channel. Nervousness about the Brexit referendum could cause jitters over the next six weeks. A vote for British exit from the EU would cause a down-spike, but would be followed by protracted negotiations in which actual trading changes would be gradual rather than sudden. Brexit sounds unlikely, but predicting the outcome of a referendum is fraught.

Friday, 6 May 2016

NASDAQ downtrend slope

If the graph bounces off Support Line S1, then the current downslope is likely to continue. If it revives before it meets S1, the indications are that the downtrend will continue no further. If it drops to S2, a sharper downslope is indicated.