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Tuesday, 29 September 2015

EUR/USD: believe what you see

Most commentators continue to expect the Euro to decline against the US Dollar -and still predict parity before year end. I, however, believe what I see.

I see my country, Ireland's, exports booming and tourists pouring in, partly because the low Euro makes our prices appear very low to those with Sterling or Dollars. In other words, Euro is undervalued and must rise, no matter how Ireland and, more importantly, the ECB, would want to keep it down.

The chart shows that an upward trend began around 13 Mar 2015. Still at a low slope, an acceleration of the uptrend is indicated. Last week's ECB meeting caused a dip, but the ECB can't, in fact, prevent the inevitable. A rise in American interest rates could bolster the Dollar - but is that not on the long finger?

Thursday, 24 September 2015

Euro continues upwards against US Dollar

EUR/USD dipped out of the channel I painted in a previous post. However, it has rebounded and the trend continues upwards, maybe more gently than I had predicted.

NASDAQ on long-term downtrend

Having hit the target set in my last post, NASDAQ rebounded today. However, I would say that it  could repeat the pattern of the dotcom correction of 2000, (blue triangles). Upswings will occur, but the trend could continue downwards throughout 2016 and into 2017, until the long-term Support Line is reached.

Tuesday, 22 September 2015

DOW downtrend becomes more definite

The upswing of the Dow after the Great Fall of China has ended (for now) and the downtrend is becoming more defined. Resistance Line A recedes into history. Resistance Line C looks solid, but there could still be a moderation of the downtrend via an upswing bringing us back to Resistance Line B.

Friday, 11 September 2015

EUR/USD upslope accelerates

The Euro has been trending gently upwards against the US Dollar since the Ides of March 2015. Now the upslope has accelerated a bit. Next peak around $1.18.

Thursday, 3 September 2015

EUR/USD: Draghi stops Euro rise

The monthly ECB meeting today, showing European growth practically non-existent, inflation flat and money-supply increasing, threw a bucket of cold water on the Euro. Result: EUR/USD plunges, and I exit my position with egg on face. Will it continue to plunge or level out? Who knows?

Tuesday, 1 September 2015

EUR/USD upswing in progress

So far, I am justified in getting in early in my long position, as the upswing started without hitting the Support Line. Next peak will be around $1.175.