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Saturday, 1 November 2014

I was wrong (markets surge not plunge), but still ...

I was wrong. Instead of plunging, the markets have surged. Nevertheless:

1: The strong upward slope that brought us here, as I illustrated in a previous post, were caused by the policies of QE (Quantitive Easing) and ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy). When the American economic growth is self-sustaining, these policies have to end, bringing a significant market correction.

2. The amazing recovery over the last week had two underlying triggers: the FED's assurance that ZIRP would end no time soon, and evidence that the American economic recovery is now self-sustaining. Ultimately these are two contradictory forces, since self-sustaining economic growth calls for an end to ZIRP.

3. I can hear the cocks crowing, which always happens on the eve of a market collapse. Bear voices are drowned and the market's champions encourage the fools with promises of even greater profits to come. The louder they shout the clearer the message becomes: we want to sell at the right price! See how the cocks crowed before the Irish property market collapse and then the bank collapse: the critics (within the department of Finance as well as the media) were silenced and we were assured there would be no hard landing and that the Irish banks were sound. Oh yes!

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