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Saturday, 8 August 2015

EUR/USD rally runs out of steam

Monetary outflows from Europe continue according to Deutsche Bank.

US interest rates are to rise later this year.

QE, if the funds are not re-invested, will convert into Quantitative Tightening.

The US Dollar will strengthen again against all comers except, perhaps, GBP and NZD.

While the trend of the Euro against the Dollar has been slowly upwards since early Mar, this rally has proven rather weak-hearted and is running out of whatever steam it had. The year-long downtrend that began in May 2014 appears to be re-asserting itself. This week EUR/USD must break through either the Year-long Resistance Line, or the 3-month old Support Line. I guess that it is the Support Line that will not hold.

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