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Sunday, 11 May 2014

A correction is due whether it's a Secular Bear or not

My annotated chart of the Dow, from 1915 to the present, explains why I think a correction is due in the markets before the end of the year. The chart can be viewed at the following link. (Click on the chart to access my page at and then click on the chart on that page to enlarge it):


The chart shows the Dow Index and its 50-day Moving Average since 1915. I have encased the Secular Bears that occurred in the period in amber boxes and used purple boxes to highlight corrections that have happened when the share price moved sharply above the Moving Average. Perhaps the recent Secular Bear ended in 2008 and we are now in a Secular Bull Market. Even so, history shows that, when the share price moves sharply out of line with the 50-day Moving Average, a significant correction is due. This correction will, no doubt, happen before the end of 2014.

Analysts disagree as to whether we are still in the Secular Bear (i.e., a long-term bear market) that commenced in 1999/ 2000, or whether we have emerged from the Bear Market into a Secular Bull. My argument is that, whichever view applies, since share prices have risen sharply above the 50-day Moving Average, a severe correction is due before the end of 2014.

The Stock Traders' Almanac predicts that the Dow Jones will fall to $12,000 (from its present c. $16,500) this year. It will then recover to $18,000 by the end of 2015, but fall back to $10,000 by the end of 2018, before the next Secular Bull will start, which will see the markets rising continuously for 15 years.

Stock Trader's Almanac 2014
Stock Trader's Almanac 2015 (Almanac Investor Series)

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