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Wednesday, 23 July 2014

140723 A look at Japanese Yen v. the Euro

petegibb78, on asked me to have a look at EUR/JPY.

First, I had a look to see how the Japanese Index was doing:

Japanese shares have been up and down quite a lot since the 1990s. 2013 saw a strong uptrend, which has now ended and a downtrend has commenced. Besides the trend lines (Resistance Line joining the tops and Support Line joining the bottoms), I also display two simple moving averages a 10-month and a 20-month. When the price moves away from the moving average, a correction follows. Recently this correction has taken place, as the price swung down. The longer-term moving average is now edging its way over the shorter-term moving average. This supports the notion highlighted by the trend lines that a downtrend is afoot.

While the western exchanges are still progressing upwards, and heading away from the moving averages, in Japan the downtrend has already begun.

Next, I look to see how the US Dollar is doing against the Yen:

The Dollar rose strongly against the Yen in the last year, but now is beginning to trend downwards.  Since the Euro is trending downwards against the Dollar, it must be trending doubly downwards against the Yen.

Now to look at the Euro against the Yen:

The Euro has been trending upwards against the Yen, but in recent months has turned downwards. While the western stock markets have not yet reversed to a downtrend, this will follow soon. Betting on the EURJPY going down is strongly indicated, in my opinion.

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