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Friday, 11 July 2014

140711: S&P 500: Parabola explored further

In my previous post, I showed a graph of the S&P going back to 1990, with 4 parabolas drawn. I now focus on the last of these parabolas, looking for clues as to whether the peak of the parabola has really been reached, or whether this is a false peak.

If we are at a peak, we can expect the value to decline gradually at first and then accelerate down the side of the parabola. I suppose no-one can predict how low it will fall, but the Stock Traders' Almanac has previously predicted a fall of 30% in the indexes this year and this is echoed in the forecast of Financial Forecast Center given in a previous post of mine. That forecast now predicts that the correction will occur between now and October, with a recovery starting at the beginning of October.

Actually, the Almanac has the Index falling as far as 1300, but the Forecast Center has the recovery setting in at 1700 (from the present 1963).

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