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Friday, 12 September 2014

EUR/USD Joining the dots: downtrend to end soon

Click to enlarge the image.

Just for fun (or out of frustration) I joined up all the Dotted Lines. This produced a pretty picture until I added the Bollinger Bands, which messed up the pretty diamond shape. The net outcome is that, while the present strong downslope was predictable, where it will end is not so clear. From the chart, it would appear that the end will be soon, possibly around $1.290. The Fundamentals indicate otherwise. US interest rates will rise sooner than Euro rates. The ECB will introduce vigorous Quantitive Easing. Both of these factors indicate a continuing decline of the Euro. However, ECB freeing up bank cash will stimulate EU economic growth and maybe even inflation. This won't be immediate. The markets are, however, wiser in their ways than the economists. They respond more to sentiment than to analysis. The charts have often been right where the analysts were wrong. Summary: I don't trust the present downtrend to continue much longer. A bounce-back at €1.290, lasting a few months, and then either a serious bounce off the Resistance Line, bringing a deeper down-trend, or a break-through of the Resistance Line, bringing a serious up-trend. I can go no further.

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