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Tuesday, 9 September 2014

Short on Euro

Having paused after its plunge following September's ECB meeting, the Euro has revived its decline against the US Dollar.

Another opportunity I possibly can't pass is an imminent downswing in the markets, if not a trend reversal. The following graph of the S&P 500 illustrates the issue:

Click on the image to enlarge.

Lines A and B enclose the range through which the S&P has been moving over the last year: a strong upward slope. Line C shows how the Resistance has moderated, possibly indicating that the top of the parabola has been reached or is not far away. The value of the S&P500 index naturally swings up and down between Support Line and Resistance Line. Line E shows the direction of the last downswing. Stock Market behaviour, like all human behaviour, follows patterns, so I predict tha Line E will repeat as Line F. Over the past few posts, I have moved Line F progressively eastwards, as the graph finds resistance at temporary Resistance Line D. Sooner or later, and now probably sooner, the graph will break through Line D and then plunge suddenly towards Line A. If it breaks through Line A, this may indicate that the uptrend of the markets has finished and a downtrend, or down-plunge is about to happen.

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